Value Check: Chris Godwin

An article by Angel Maldonado

Chris Godwin is among the hottest names in fantasy football. After a rookie year where he exceeded expectations, there was a lot of hype for Godwin coming into year two. He delivered, finishing as a flex worthy player and showing that he can still grow There were two things that were keeping him from reaching his full potential. 1: the presence of Humphries and DeSean Jackson and 2: lack of playing time. With the departure of Humphries and D-Jax, both those issues are long gone. The Chris Godwin hype train is running full steam ahead… and that may be precisely why he is no longer a good value in Dynasty leagues and why he may be overpriced heading into the 2019 season.

Pre-Season 2018

In 2017, Chris Godwin had 34 receptions for 525 yards and 1 touchdown. He displayed more promise as the season wore on and established himself as a worthwhile prospect for the Buccaneers. The Bucs offense was already full of established playmakers, however, and so Godwin entered 2018 in a timeshare for the WR3 spot alongside Adam Humphries and behind Mike Evans and Desean Jackson. It’a a position he would have for most of 2018, but he would also carry increased expectations.

2018 Season

Godwin had a solid fantasy season in 2018. He finished as a flex worthy player, catching 59 passes for 852 yards and 7 touchdowns. He did all of this with only a 67.7% snap percentage, good for 82nd in the league. One area of concern was his disappearance over the last two weeks of the fantasy eason. He posted a goose egg in Week 15 and caught 3 passes for 39 yards in Week 16 before resurging in Week 17 for over 116 yards and two touchdowns. It is important to note that those two weeks came against two of the best secondaries in the NFL, but it is worth mentioning. As a whole, however, Godwin certainly took the leap in 2018 what was expected hi, which led to the 2019 Off-Season…

2019 Off-Season

There are some people who saw this coming and pounced on Godwin before his price skyrocketed. Tampa Bay said goodbye to Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson this offseason, leaving Godwin as the unquestioned WR2 in the Bucs offense. Not only that, but he receives a new head coach in Bruce Arians that has already stated that he sees Godwin as capable of being a 100 catch player. The hype is sky high with fantasy players seeing Godwin as the next big thing and investing heavily in third year WR. But is the hype getting out of control?

Why He’s Overpriced

Investing in Godwin before the 2019 Off-Season was a savvy move by owners. He was a reasonably priced prospect and many players got him for less than he is now worth. But after the departures of Humphris and D-Jax, he has become overpriced. He is a Solid WR2 and will produce in 2019, barring injuries. Still, some are pricing him as close to a WR1 when he is still in an offense that features Mike Evans and O.J Howard. It is also entirely possible the Buccaneers draft a WR like Marquise Brown in the draft. On the @3CoSports Twitter, we ran a poll asking our followers if they were buying or selling Godwin. 56% voted buying, while 44% are content to sell him. It’s a hot button issue that can go either way. In Dynasty Leagues, if you give up Godwin you’re giving up a WR2 that will put up 1000 yards and multiple touchdowns. But buying him means overpaying for him at the moment. His hype is out of control and he is a fantasy darling for everyone who believed he would get his shot. If he’s going in the 5th Round in drafts he is most definitely worth the pick up. Any earlier and he starts to lose his value.

Final Verdict

Godwin is a solid hold at the moment. His hype is too high to justify buying him at his current price, but there’s a reason for the hype: he is good. He is a deep threat and big enough to be a red zone threat. Arians implied he may work out of the slot in 2019, a position that has proved fruitful for his offenses (See Larry Fitzgerald). Owners of Godwin who are contending can safely slot him in the WR2 slot while those who are rebuilding can hold on to the 22 year old and watch him blossom for years to come. If you don’t own him, start taking a look at who can be the next Godwin like player and invest in him instead.

Godwin is the perfect example of anticipating value. If you looked closely, you could have seen this this value increase coming as early as the 2018 Off-Season. Owners who invested in him early are reaping the rewards while those who waited are now left to accept the fact that it is best to let the owner hold him. While he is overpriced at the moment, there is no doubt that Godwin will be a story to monitor in 2019.

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