VALUE CHECK: Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes was the biggest hidden gem in fantasy last season. He was being drafted nowhere near the Top 5 Rounds, yet put up a season that rivaled those of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in their prime. He did this in his first year of starting at the age of 23. In other words, at age 23, Mahomes is arguably the best Quarterback in the league. But talent and fantasy football value are two different things. Mahomes has a current ADP hovering in the mid 3rd round of redraft leagues. In some mock drafts, Mahomes has gone as high as the First Round. Now, Mahomes has talent. But there are a couple of factors worth considering before drafting Mahomes that high.
Buying High on Mahomes
Buying Mahomes this year means buying him at PEAK value. He just came off a historic season that can only be rivaled by what Brady and Manning did in their respective 50 TD seasons. What needs to be taken into account is regression. Buying MAhomes in the 3rd Round is making an investment that will only pay off if he comes close to his production from last year. One of the reasons why he was such a fantasy stud was that, aside from the points, he was super cheap to get. He wasn’t going in the Top 8 rounds and he ended up being a top performing Quarterback. That’s where his biggest value was in 2018, and it is a value that he doesn’t possess in 2019.
He Will Regress
Forgetting about his high asking price, the odds are against Mahomes repeating his record performance from 2018. Not only has he lost his main weapon in Tyreek Hill, but the Chiefs have one of the toughest schedules for offenses. Mecole Hardman, no matter how fast he is, is not going to replace Tyreek Hill. Of course, this is being written with the assumption that the NFL will suspend Tyreek Hill. While Sammy Watkins is far from the worst WR1 a team can have, his availability will always be a concern. Repeating a 50 TD season is difficult no matter what, but losing a top receiver, regression, and a tough schedule are 3 things working against Mahomes at the moment.
While Quarterback is easily the most important position in football, that obviously isn’t the case for Fantasy Football. There’s a reason why streaming QBs is so popular: it works. We live in an age where elite fantasy QBs are not at a premium and, with proper research, it isn’t hard to identify potential streaming options every week. Drafting a QB in Round 3, which is what it would take to get Mahomes, simply is not worth it from purely a positional perspective. There’s too many good fantasy options at QB to get tied down in the third round. Wait on QB and draft someone like Zach Ertz, A.J Green, Aaron Jones, or Marlon Mack in the third.
How do you feel about Mahomes? Would you consider drafting him in the 3rd? Let us know in the comments!