Buy or Sell| Dynasty Value of Young QBS

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Alex Kurpeski 

Quarterback. This position can be vital to your success in fantasy football, as the ability to start high-upside passers on a weekly basis can often account for 20-25 extra points in your lineup on any given week. These extra points from a great QB performance can be the difference between a 4-9 season and an 8-5 season. Not all QBs are created equal, some are just not meant to breakout in fantasy, whether due to their own limitations or the limitations imposed upon them by their team’s situation. In dynasty leagues, you almost always want to have at least one young QB (under 27 years old or less than 5 years in the league) rostered, as their long term upside is important when assessing your team’s plan in the long term. So without further adieu, let’s take a look at some young quarterbacks whose dynasty stock I’m buying, as well as those whose stock I’m selling as soon as possible. Obvious buys like Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz, and Patrick Mahomes have been omitted from the list. 

QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens 

Jackson has really bloomed in his second season with Baltimore. The team has begun to construct an offense perfectly suited to Jackson’s strengths and it should only improve in the next few seasons. While he has had some struggles when blitzed, Jackson’s fantasy value should stay at a top 10 positional level for the foreseeable future, thanks to his rushing ability and the “home run hitters” in his receiving corps. While he may not be Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes, Jackson will be a fantasy asset with high-upside every single week. 

Verdict: Buying

QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills 

This was a tough one. Allen is a very physically talented QB who has a track record of productivity in fantasy since coming into the league. However, Allen’s injury history has been troubling, as he takes an excessive amount of hits for a QB. We have seen what this type of consistent damage can do to a QB, as Andrew Luck and Cam Newton’s careers have been forever altered due to injuries. Allen is much less talented than those two players, so I’m even less optimistic about his long term output. On top of my injury concerns for Allen, his turnover issues could lead to his eventual departure from Buffalo, as Allen’s career TD:INT ratio is currently negative. Until Allen shows more growth as a passer I’m going to sell him as a dynasty asset despite his production.

Verdict: Selling High

QB Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns 

It’s been a rough start to the season for Mayfield and the Browns, but his long term value is just as high as it was before the season. Mayfield is far too talented to continue slumping like this, his accuracy is among the best at his position and he proved last year that he has what it takes to be a highly productive passer in the league. With 27 touchdowns last season, Mayfield was balling at a Pro Bowl level down the stretch with a far less accomplished cast on offense. I firmly believe that Mayfield will re-emerge as a top 10 fantasy option as his position in 2019, and I think he will continue to be an excellent fantasy QB in the next decade. 

Verdict: Buying Low

QB Drew Lock, Denver Broncos 

Lock was unimpressive in the preseason and currently finds himself on Injured Reserve for Denver. He is a very talented passer, with qualities reminiscent of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Unlike these players, Lock has no track record of success in the NFL. This, on top of the fact that Lock is currently on a Broncos roster that is lacking direction makes for a very dubious outlook from a fantasy perspective. While I think Lock has a chance to start in this league, I doubt he will be a productive fantasy asset any time soon, if at all.

Verdict: Selling

QB Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts 

My assessment of Brissett is pretty straightforward. I think he’s Alex Smith, only built in the mold of Ben Roethlisberger. A game manager to the core, Brissett isn’t likely to drop many 40 point fantasy games, as he seems to be as committed as anyone to the Colts mantra of “Run The Damn Ball”. Brissett projects as a solid fantasy QB2 with matchup based upside. While he may be the bridge to a more prolific passer, the former backup to Tom Brady has a very good chance to stick as the starter in Indy beyond 2019. 

Verdict: Buying Low/Selling High

QB Gardner Mineshew II, Jacksonville Jaguars 

Mineshew Mania has taken over Jacksonville (and the entire NFL for that matter). While Gardner Mineshew II is indeed a fun character and a great story, there’s a reason why he was drafted in the sixth round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Now I know what you’re gonna say. “Tom Brady was a sixth round pick too”. Yes, he was, you’re right. As fun as Mineshew is, he’s not Tom Brady. I don’t doubt that our favorite moustachioed quarterback can stick around the league for a very long time. He is a great leader and a more than capable passer. But is he a franchise QB? Doubtful. I think Nick Foles will get a chance to take his job back from Mineshew once he returns from IR. 

Verdict: Selling

QB Josh Rosen, Miami Dolphins

Oh how they’ve butchered my boy! Josh Rosen was one of my favorite QB prospects in the 2018 NFL Draft, as he appeared to be the most pro-ready passer in the class. Unfortunately for Rosen, he has been the quarterback for two of the worst offenses in NFL history. While I still have hope that Chosen Rosen will find himself in a situation where he can legitimately prove himself to be a capable NFL QB, the outlook is bleak at this point. 

Verdict: Selling (for now)

QB Sam Darnold, New York Jets 

Feb 3, 2019; Atlanta, GA, USA; New England Patriots former player Ty Law before Super Bowl LIII against the Los Angeles Rams at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not sure how good Sam Darnold really is. Sure he has a good arm. Yes, he’s had moments of pretty good play but so have Geno Smith, Terrelle Pryor, and Blake Bortles. I don’t think Adam Gase is going to coax a top 15 fantasy finish out of Darnold any time soon, as the checkdown tendencies of both coach and player should make for an utterly boring offense for the foreseeable future. I think Darnold is worth rostering, but don’t bank on him as the future of your dynasty team. 

Verdict: Selling

QB Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh Steelers 

Rudolph is an okay player but Pittsburgh belongs to Big Ben Roethlisberger. Rudolph lacks that certain “it” factor necessary to be the man in Pittsburgh. I doubt he is the team’s future at the position and I think he holds little to no value beyond 2019 as a fantasy asset.

Verdict: Selling

QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals 

Kyler Murray is special. The Cardinals threw away a perfectly good rookie QB in order to draft Murray, and installed him as the QB in their revolutionary “Air Raid” scheme. With coach Kliff Kingsbury, Murray has a chance to be the best QB in fantasy football one day, thanks to his rushing ability and the high passing volume of the Cardinals offensive scheme. If you have Murray on your dynasty roster, you are set for the next 10-15 years. 

Verdict: Buying

QB Mitch Trubisky, Chicago Bears 

DENVER, COLORADO – SEPTEMBER 15: Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky #10 of the Chicago Bears throws in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on September 15, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Ok, hear me out. Yes, Trubisky has been atrocious this season. Yes, his success last season was almost all game script dependent. Yes, he is worse than Deshaun Watson and patrick Mahomes. But, here’s the thing. The Bears are very committed to Trubisky as their starting QB and their head coach Matt Nagy just happens to be among the brightest offensive minds in the league. At some point Nagy will unlock the good version of Trubisky, and this version will be a perfectly acceptable fantasy starter down the line. Trubisky, like many entries into the “buy” category, uses his legs to his advantage, and could simply be schemed to a 25 touchdown season, once the wrinkles in his game are ironed out. 

Verdict: Buying Low

QB Kyle Allen, Carolina Panthers 

Sep 8, 2019; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen (7) stands on the sidelines during the third quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Is Kyle Allen the next Kurt Warner? No, he’s not. 

Verdict: Selling

QB Daniel Jones, New York Giants 

Sep 8, 2019; Arlington, TX, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) rolls out against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Oh, Danny Dimes you’re lucky that Eli set the bar so low for you. While his debut against Tampa Bay was utterly spectacular, Jones’s previous two games have been mediocre to say the least. That’s not to say he isn’t a very good player. Jones has the potential to be one of the best in the league at his position, once the Giants are able to field a healthy offense alongside him.

Verdict: Buying

QB Dwayne Haskins, Washington Redskins 

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – SEPTEMBER 29: Dwayne Haskins #7 of the Washington Redskins in action against the New York Giants during their game at MetLife Stadium on September 29, 2019 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

I’m sorry Dwayne, but that situation in Washington isn’t getting better anytime soon. 

Verdict: Selling

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