by Alex Kurpeski (@3COAK)
While I wouldn’t call myself a D.K Metcalf believer just yet, it’s undeniable that Metcalf is an extraordinary mismatch in the Seahawks receiving core, one who should be featured more prominently this season. With the additions of Greg Olsen and potentially Josh Gordon (again), as well as the reintegration of Will Dissly into the team’s passing game in conjunction with the expected rise in Metcalf’s target share, veteran wideout Tyler Lockett appears poised for regression this season.
Lockett finished last season as the WR13 overall in PPR and he could have ended up finishing with much better numbers, as his average of 18.9 fantasy points-per-game through the first nine weeks of last season — before he suffered the severe leg contusion that plagued him for the rest of the season — had him on pace to finish as the WR2 overall behind Michael Thomas. Even if Lockett can avoid the injury bug this season, counting on him for a 22.2% target share again this season is a dubious strategy considering the presence of the ascending Metcalf.
One element that stood out from Lockett’s game last season was his ability to make contested catches look routine, as evidenced from the toe-tapping touchdown catch that momentarily broke the internet from the team’s Week 5 matchup with the Rams. While impressive, Lockett’s 74.5% catch rate from last season feels unsustainable for this season barring a decrease in his total targets. Likewise, it feels inevitable that Lockett’s touchdown rate will decrease this season with the various big-bodied targets lining the field for Seattle, particularly Metcalf and potentially Gordon.
Highest-graded WRs when lined up in the slot in 2019:
1. Chris Godwin – 96.5
2. Tyler Lockett – 94.5
2. Golden Tate – 94.5
4. Jamison Crowder – 93.7 pic.twitter.com/it5nMA2a6S
— PFF (@PFF) June 27, 2020
As impressive as Lockett’s previous two campaigns were, his days as the WR1 in Seattle’s already low-volume passing offense appear to be numbered, barring an extreme derailment of Metcalf’s development. Thus, I have Lockett projected for a decent dip this season, in regards to his production.
- 70 receptions (-12 receptions from last season)
- 96 targets (-14 targets from last season)
- 5 receiving TDs
- 945 receiving yards
- 194.5 fantasy points ~WR27
While his numbers should take a significant hit, Lockett will still be a borderline WR2 so don’t fret too much.