by Fantasy Logical
Twitter is abuzz with the Evans or Godwin argument lately and there are many supporting arguments for each… which is exactly why I want no part of either of them at their current ADP.
I’ll get these caveats out of the way real quick too: I’m a Tom Brady fanboy. I grew up a Pats fan and I have no gripes with him easing into retirement in Florida – plenty of other New Englanders have been known to do the same. I don’t think he’s going to suck either! I’ve watched him win battle after battle with Father Time and have no reason to believe this year will be any different. So why am I avoiding his top two WRs that put up a combined 2500 receiving yards and 17 TDs?
Usually, I’m a stats nerd. I want to crunch the numbers and get to a projection for a given player that I can work with. Sometimes though, fantasy football is about understanding when there is no basis for projections and minimizing the risk of the unknown. This is a new season with a new quarterback that will have an influence on the playbook, threw a lot of balls to RBs over the past few years, and just coaxed his favorite security blanket out of retirement. The outlook for the offense looks great – don’t get me wrong – I expect them to win a lot of games with this offense. But the range of outcomes for targets/ yards/ TDs at a player level is WIDE (as evidenced by all those great arguments supporting Evans or Godwin) and anyone that says they know how it will break down with any certainty is lying – we’re all speculating (but with compelling arguments!).
Yards per attempt from QBs who started over 10 games
7.4-Jared Goff pic.twitter.com/nNR0IEKKwu
— John Chapman (@JL_Chapman) July 5, 2020
If you looked at Evans/Godwin as one player – that one player is a regression candidate. Repeating Winston’s 5000/30 year is a tough ask for Brady. Evans/ Godwin keeping their target and TD share with Gronk entering the equation and Brady’s history of checking down to RBs is near impossible. So for either player to be worth their ADP, you’d have to assume that one is going to be the clear WR1 – but good luck figuring out which one it will be (there’s a good twitter thread or two that are happy to help here). Do you want to bet your 2nd/ early 3rd on which it will be? With Golladay, JuJu, Thielen still sitting on the board? Be my guest.
Is it possible that Tom Terrific replicates Jameis’s season from a season ago (without the matching INTs…) and both Evans and Godwin put up similar numbers to last year? It is and if that’s your logic, I won’t blame you for betting on Tom. Otherwise – there are players with similar upside and less risk on the board in that range.
P.S. Tom, I miss you.