by Alex Kurpeski and Angel Maldonado Tejada
The Dolphins may not be the team you think of when high-powered offenses come to mind, but they are set to have some surprising fantasy football stars in 2020. Alex and Angel break down their favorite values on the Dolphins.
Alex’s Pick: RB Matt Breida, ADP of 8.11 (As of August 7th, 2020)
Easily the most dynamic runner on the Dolphins roster, Breida is currently being taken after Jordan Howard as the RB41 overall. While Howard may be the starter in name, the fact of the matter is that Breida will likely be seeing the higher snap share of the two, as he appears to be much better suited to take over as the team’s receiving back, while Howard will likely see a game script dependent usage as the team’s power back. Considering the floor for Miami’s offense is about as low as any team in the league, investing in a touchdown-dependent back who has historically performed best when his team is in the lead may be a dubious venture. Bypassing Howard in favor of Breida in drafts appears to be the optimal move in my eye, as we have seen Breida perform well as the lead back for a similarly undermanned offense (the 2018 49ers).
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) August 6, 2020
Regardless of whether or not Tua Tagovailoa starts for the team this season, there is a clear need for a dynamic change-of-pace back with the receiving skills that Breida possesses, as the team struggled mightily moving the ball last season with a rotation of mediocre backs. While he’s struggled to stay healthy in the last couple of seasons, Breida has been a consistently explosive runner, as evidenced by his career average of 5.0 YPC. With a breakaway rate of 6.5% and an average of 18 yards created per-game last season — despite dealing with a nasty ankle injury for most of the season — Breida was one of the better improvisers at the running back position, a quality that will be greatly appreciated by the Dolphins offensive line, which will be populated mostly by rookies this season. If you’re looking for a cheap back with sneaky RB2 upside, Matt Breida is your man.
Angel’s Pick: Mike Gesicki, ADP of 13.04 (As of August 7th)
I’m not a huge fan of anyone on the Dolphins this season. While Preston Williams showed plenty of potential his rookie season, I expect his ACL recovery to last into the seasonand slow him down for at least the first half of it. Devante Parker is someone I’m convinced will be a one-season wonder, and I have zero desire for any shares of Jordan Howard in this offense. There is, however, one player whose hype has died down enough for me to become intrigued in him at his current price: Mike Gesicki.
Gesicki was being hyped up by many to be the next great Tight End. His measurables certainly suggest he has that potential.
Yet, despite this, Gesicki has not yet developed into the dominant Tight End some expect him to be. So what’s keeping Gesicki from stardom? Many have expressed concern that Chan Gailey, Miami’s new offensive coordinator, will not target the TE position heavily due to his past. However, when equipped with the über-athletic Tony Gonzalez at TE in 2008, Gailey’s offense targeted him 155 times.
Obviously, Gesicki is not Tony Gonzalez. Still, he is an extremely athletic Tight End who lined up in the slot more than he did at TE in 2019. This versatility should serve well for Gesicki since the Dolphins do not have a premier receiving group, much less a dominant slot receiver. If Miami is once again plagued by bad defense this season (they will be) then Gesicki will most likely receive an uptick in targets (89 last season) given the Dolphins will continue to throw the ball to stay in the game (average of 42.1 pass attempts per game last season).
Don’t forget, Gesicki had a top-12 season last year. Given his ADP of 13.04, you’re receiving a free starter with upside for much more. He’s the best value on a Dolphins team that is looking to prove everyone wrong in 2020.
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