Alex’s Pick: QB Baker Mayfield, ADP of 12.02 (As of August 14, 2020)
Recency bias is an incredibly dangerous barrier to success in fantasy football. Yes, Baker Mayfield was a huge disappointment last season, as many folks believed that the Browns QB was ready to make the leap from very good to elite in his second season. Instead, Mayfield finished as the QB19 overall, completing just 59.4% of his passes while turning the ball over 27 times. When comparing Mayfield’s 2019 campaign to what we saw from him as a rookie, it almost appears as though we’re looking at two different players entirely.
As ineffective as Mayfield was at certain points last season, he should be in-line for a nice rebound this season thanks to the addition of HC Kevin Stefanski, who was credited with reinvigorating the Vikings offense in 2019. With two legitimate number one wideouts (Odell Beckham & Jarvis Landry), a pair of dynamic pass-catching backs (Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt), two uber-athletic tight ends (David Njoku & Austin Hooper), and the easiest schedule for the QB position in relation to fantasy football, Mayfield is primed to put his doubters to shame this season. You can grab Mayfield as the QB17 right now, behind guys like Daniel Jones, Ben Roethlisberger, and Cam Newton, all of whom find themselves in far less favorable circumstances heading into this season. At his current ADP Mayfield is an excellent value.
Angel’s Pick: Odell Beckham Jr, ADP of 3.11 (As of August 18th, 2020)
After years of Odell Beckham Jr having an inflated ADP because of one catch, the wheels have turned: he is officially a fantasy football value. Let me explain.
Odell’s move to the Browns was met with plenty of fanfare and optimism; Baker Mayfield has excelled at throwing the deep ball his rookie season and Odell was going to play with a rising star… it seemed like a match made in heaven. Of course, what followed was utter disappointment as Odell had the quietest 1,000 yard season of all time along with mustering up four touchdowns. It wasn’t the season the Browns expected and it wasn’t the season fantasy managers were expecting. So why do I think he’s the best value on the Browns?
For starters, he has the easiest schedule for wide receivers. This is huge for fantasy production and should allow for much more favorable matchups than we saw last season. The chemistry with Baker Mayfield should also be much improved after a season where it looked like they were having difficulty getting on the same page. The fact that Mayfield continued to pepper OBJ with targets (133) is a good sign that he will continue to receive looks and he should have a high target share in 2020.
Odell has been overvalued for years, but 2020 is the season he finally becomes a league-winning value.