Odell Beckham Jr. was a MAJOR disappointment last season. After an offseason of hype and promise, a combination of factors led to a disappointing WR25 finish for the former Giant in PPR formats. As a result, Beckham enters 2020 with less hype than he has ever received in his entire career, a fact that bodes well for those who are willing to draft him. At an ADP of 53.7 (via our friends at FantasyData), OBJ might just be a Top 10 WR at an insane value. Here are three reasons why I believe Odell Beckham Jr will outperform his ADP and be a Top 10 receiver in 2020.
Strength of Schedule
The savviest of fantasy football managers know how to use matchups to their advantage and OBJ should give those managers plenty of opportunities to capitalize on. Per FantasyPros, Odell Beckham has 2 unfavorable matchups ALL season (Week 4 @DAL and Week 12 @JAC) and even those aren’t all that intimidating. Overall, Odell ranks No.6 among WRs in terms of SOS. A great matchup can turn an average fantasy player into a one week stud and a bad matchup can ruin your week if you have no other alternatives. Luckily, Odell should be a plug and forget option all season and should thrive against his easier matchups.
Note: Revenge game against the Giant in the fantasy playoffs? If you make it to the semi-finals Odell might just get 40 for you…
Despite the miscommunications and lack of chemistry, Odell Beckham still received 133 targets last season, good for 12th in the league (25.6% target share also ranks 12th in the league) despite the Browns ranking 20th in passes per game (via Player Profiler). He also ranked second in the league in deep targets, finishing with 31.
Clearly, Baker Mayfield wants to get Odell Beckham involved as much as possible and I don’t foresee that changing in 2020, especially when it comes to the deep targets. The first step towards fantasy superstardom is an opportunity and, with Odell Beckham being one of the premier playmakers in the league, the Browns need to continue getting him involved as much as possible. Expect OBJ to once again be in the Top 12 in targets this season. Of course, targets are just one part of the equation.
Despite all of his targets, Odell Beckham Jr. did not play to his potential last season. While Mayfield is partially to blame for OBJ’s disappointing 2019, the reality is the star wideout performed far below his standard. He led the league with 11 drops (8.3% drop rate), barely eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards (1,025), and only had 4 touchdowns to show for it at the end of the season (he had 6 in 12 games the previous season). Considering his total target distance of 1,849.5 (#3 in the league), his yardage should have been much higher last season. As I said, though, Mayfield also struggled and only 99 of Beckham’s 133 targets were catchable (#69 in the league). That number needs to improve in 2020 and most likely will as Stefanki’s new offense opens up more wide open play-action passes. Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. should both see positive regression and that bodes well for OBJ’s fantasy potential in 2020.
In addition to all of these, Beckham was plagued by a hip and groin injury that should have been addressed much sooner than it was. Entering 2020 fully healthy, OBJ should be a Top 10 receiver in 2020.