Make No Mistake!

Make No Mistake

12/12/20
Chris Robin https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Let’s be honest, everywhere you turn there is DFS advice. Literally everywhere. Make no mistake not all sites are created equal! I hate to say that given the current landscape of the fantasy sports community. I have found it to be a wonderful place!

The beauty of fantasy sports and more importantly, DFS, is the fact everyone has their process. On a personal level, the world is a cold cruel place. People will do just about anything for a buck! They will lie, cheat and steal. How many times in your DFS career have you been approached by someone willing to sell you their lines? Under the guise, “Let me do you a favor and give you my lines!”

My first thought, “yeah right!” Then rolling my eyes. If you’ve noticed over the years, the really good content providers tend to move in silence. They aren’t begging you to choose them. They operate by word of mouth and consistent results. So, what is your point here Chris? My point is to trust your gut. Trust your own personal process. Meaning, I could sell lineups until the cows come home but that’s not helpful to anyone.

To me, that eliminates all the fun for both parties! With full transparency I can tell you I thoroughly enjoy my process! From start to finish. From top to bottom. That’s all I’ve wanted to do, share my process. In turn, helping others along the way.

If we turn out attention to week 14, you’ll see a ton of twists and turns. Hurdles, road bumps and whatever other nonsense you can toss in. Let’s look at my favorite GPP line on Sunday. Let’s say we dissect it!

Fanduel 12/13 1p MAIN

The above photo is favorite GPP play on Fanduel this weekend.

Pat Mahomes @ MIA

It’s Patrick Mahomes need I say more? When you think of Pat what is the first thing that comes to mind? Let’s compare! To me, match-up proof! Look I’m not going to bore you with numbers and stats here. We both know it’s a luxury having Mahomes in our lines! Enjoy!

Austin Ekeler vs ATL

The Falcons have been gashed against pass catching backs all season. Air yardage galore! With Austin being back and 100% healthy skies the limit with Justin Herbert at QB. Ekeler is a top-10 play at RB this week. Not to mention the cheaper pricing!

David Montgomery vs HOU

I’ve had a thing for D-Mont since last season. Why? He’s one of the more reliable RB’s in the league! Yes! I am serious! He’s had double digit carries in every start this season and guess what? The touchdowns are starting to come now! David has scored three times in his last two games. Which is perfect heading into a home match-up against the 31st overall ranked rush defense of the Texans. Dare I say 120 total yards in week 14 along with a touchdown?

Allen Robinson II vs HOU

If you’ve followed my content this season, I have two things to say. First, thank you! Second, you are aware of my propensity to pick on the Houston Texans. Did you know that A-Rob has caught six or more passes in six straight games? That’s one heck of a streak for a WR! This streak will no doubt stay alive and be extended in week 14! Look for Robinson II to catch 7-8 passes for around 80ish yards.

Mercole Hardman @ MIA

Aug 10, 2019; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman (17) and wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) and wide receiver Demarcus Robinson (11) dance during warmups before the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

In any big DFS tournament you must takes risks. Calculated risks albeit but still some sort of danger. This is my risk in week 14, Mercole Hardman! The Dolphins secondary has been great for much of the season so why chance it with Hardman? Assuming the Dolphin secondary will be busy with Kelce, Hill and even Clyde Edwards, I have a feeling Mercole gets free. Free enough to grab a 40+ yard touchdown. Risk and gut calls! That’s the name of the game here friends!

Davante Adams @ DET

Really? Next! His floor this week is 100 yards and a touchdown. He’s been unbelievable this season!

Hunter Henry vs ATL

Hunter is a top-5 play at tight end this weekend and I’ll tell you why. Leading up to that awful New England game, Hunter had seen at least six targets in four straight games. Looking ahead to Sunday the Falcons are giving the fifth-most fantasy points on per game basis to opposing TE’s. Justin Herbert is on the fast track to super stardom and with Austin Ekeler back in the mix that can only help Hunter’s cause! Smash play as the kids are saying!

Jamaal Williams @ DET

Make no mistake, Aaron Jones in the RB1 in GB. Yet Jamaal has seen plenty of targets and touches this season. One hundred and three carries and twenty-nine receptions to be exact. On Sunday the Packers head to Detroit to take on the hapless Lions run defense. Which is dead last if I may add. Who here thinks the Pack get up big early? Leaving a ton of work to J-Will. I do! It’s that simple in my mind. Ten carries, 45 yards, three receptions, twenty-five yards and a touchdown are very realistic projection for Jamaal in week 14.

Dallas Cowboys @ CIN

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – DECEMBER 29: Michael Gallup #13 of the Dallas Cowboys scores a touchdown in the third quarter against the Washington Redskins in the game at AT&T Stadium on December 29, 2019 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

I’ve read and even written about the success and importance of rostering a high scoring DST each week. In some cases, as stated above, we must take risks. Cool calculated risks and crossing our fingers! The Cowboys are by no means a slam dunk play in week 14 but do offer a tiny bit of upside. At the price of $3,500 it gives us some sort of salary relief.

Now, lets get to some Monkey Knife Fight action! Listed below are some of my favorite bets for week 14! Use the code 3co when you sign up! Monkey Knife Fight will 100% match your deposit up to $50.00!

1. AJ Brown TEN WR @ Jacksonville Jaguars LESS than 16.5 fantasy points.

2. Ryan Tannehill TEN QB @ Jacksonville Jaguars LESS than 260.5 passing yards.

I firmly believe this game will be the Derrick Henry show. Upwards of 27 carries for King Henry in this one. I’m cool betting the under for both AJ and Ryan.

3. Deshaun Watson HOU QB @ Chicago Bears OVER 283.5 passing yards.

Watson has show us why he’s a stud QB. Why he’s a top-10 quarterback week in and week out. Personally, I have Watson around 295 passing yards. It’s going to be close, but Deshaun just does it for us!

4. Patrick Mahomes KC QB @ Miami Dolphins LESS than 319.5 passing yards.

To project OVER 300 passing yards is so ridiculous! Just shows you how good Pat Mahomes has been playing wow! I just can’t bring myself to bet the OVER!

5. Matthew Stafford DET QB vs Green Bay Packer OVER 280.5 passing yards.

This one is shockingly easy! In a game sitting at a 55-point o/u Stafford and the Lions will be behind early and often. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Matt go over 400 passing yards again!

Any questions or comments?

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Or find me on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

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